WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE? – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  It sometimes appears that a Democratic candidate in Illinois could commit mass murder, and he'd still have a good chance at winning. 

Scandal surrounds the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate heat once held by Barack Obama.  No scandal surrounds the Republican candidate, the outstanding Mark Kirk.  And yet, Kirk's lead over the Dem is modest, and Kirk can't break 50 percent.  Scott Rasmussen has the numbers:

Republican Congressman Mark Kirk has earned a modest pick-up in support, while his Democratic opponent, Alexi Giannoulias, appears stalled in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state following the government's seizure of the failed Broadway Bank, the institution owned by Giannoulias' family.

Kirk now attracts 46% support in Illinois' race for the U.S. Senate, up from 41% in early April. Support for Giannoulias is at 38%, virtually unchanged from the previous survey but down from March, when he earned 44% of the vote. Five percent (5%) currently support some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Kirk picked up 46% to Giannoulias' 40% in the first survey after the two won their party primaries in February. But the race was a virtual toss-up by March. Still, despite the Broadway Bank controversy, Kirk has been unable to push past his previous high.

COMMENT:  Illinois is quirky.  Obama's approval ratings in his home state are higher than they are nationally.  Besides, corruption is almost taken in stride.

And Giannoulias has an appropriately ethnic name.  Kirk is a Republican congressman from a white-bread suburb.  He has been an excellent critic of Obama's foreign policy, but this is a bread-and-butter state, and that may not mean much. 

The odds favor a Kirk victory, but they're not strong odds.  If there's a Dem bounceback, Kirk could be in trouble.  Illinois is, for our side, still a problem.

May 1, 2010